Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election are on the rise this week. Betting markets, as tracked by RealClearPolitics, have placed him slightly ahead of President Joe Biden for the first time this year, with Trump at 32% and Biden at 30%.
In the chart below, you can see these odds, along with the surprising figure of Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom from California, who holds an 8% chance of becoming president, despite his repeated statements that he won’t run for the White House. Interestingly, Newsom’s chances surpass those of Trump’s rivals for the Republican nomination, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
However, it’s important to note that while betting markets can provide insights into public sentiment, they aren’t always the most reliable predictors of election outcomes. For example, they failed to accurately predict the results of last year’s midterm elections. There are several reasons for this. First, the people who engage in political gambling tend to lean right and are predominantly male. Additionally, betting markets can be influenced by prevailing narratives and unreliable polling data.
So, while Trump’s improved odds may be grabbing headlines, it’s crucial to approach these predictions with caution. The political landscape is highly dynamic, and many factors can influence the outcome of an election, including campaign strategies, unforeseen events, and changing public opinions. Therefore, the final results in the 2024 presidential election may still hold some surprises, regardless of the current odds in betting markets.
Donald Trump’s prospects for the 2024 presidential election are showing signs of improvement, despite his decision to skip a second GOP primary debate. Instead, he addressed Michigan auto workers in a speech where he expressed doubt that any of the debate participants deserved to be his vice president.
In national primary polls, Trump maintains a commanding lead with 56.6% support, according to a RealClearPolitics survey average. This strong support has persisted despite his legal challenges this year, including indictments related to election interference, hush-money, and handling classified documents. Trump continues to garner significant backing from Republican voters.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a distant second in these polls, with 14.4% support, followed by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5.8%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 5.1%, and former Vice President Mike Pence at 4.2%. Collectively, non-Trump GOP candidates receive 35.9% support in RealClearPolitics’ national poll average, while Trump secures 56.6%. In surveys for Iowa, an influential early primary state, the gap narrows further, with non-Trump candidates at 46.4% and Trump at 49.2%.
Despite Trump’s strong showing, it’s essential to remember that the political landscape can shift rapidly. While he maintains frontrunner status for now, there’s still much uncertainty surrounding the 2024 election. Factors like campaign strategies, unforeseen events, and changing voter sentiments can play a significant role in determining the final outcome. The race is far from over, and it will be intriguing to see how these dynamics evolve as the election season unfolds.
